India’s unilateral suspension of the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan has raised serious geopolitical ramifications, especially regarding China, according to an analysis published by international affairs magazine The Diplomat.
IWT, signed under World Bank mediation in 1960, governs water distribution between India and Pakistan using the Indus River system. India decided to suspend this agreement following a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir on April 22, claiming 26 lives and being blamed by Pakistan-backed militants as justification for suspending treaty provisions. X (formerly Twitter)/Wikipedia + The Diplomat + Reuters for coverage.
The Diplomat warned in its analysis of India’s move that it could set a precedent for China to follow suit with similar transboundary river restrictions, specifically restricting flow on Brahmaputra River which flows from Tibet into India and supplies approximately 30% of freshwater supplies and 44% hydroelectric capacity. China already controls several large dams on this river; any further control by Chinese could significantly impact India’s water security. X (formerly Twitter), Kashmirenglish.pk, The Diplomat, Minute Mirror and ARY NEWS are some sources which analyse India’s move.
Suspending the International Water Transfer Treaty has caused immediate regional tensions. Pakistan strongly objects to India’s action, viewing it as violative of international agreements and an imminent threat to its water security. Furthermore, their government has warned any attempt by India to disrupt shared rivers could be seen as an act of aggression by Pakistan. WwW (Wikipedia/X (formerly Twitter)/ X (formerly Twitter). Whilst both have strong objections against one another’s moves relating to international agreements or water security. Www (formerly Twitter), for its part, has warned against such actions by India against Pakistan as well. WwWT stands by itself has resulted in regional tensions ranging from South Asian to South American and even greater regional tensions between two neighbors who both regard each other’s decision not relating to water shared rivers which flow directly between their borders causing disruption by India as an act of aggression from Indian side as this breaching of International Agreement could breach Pakistan water security; whilst India warned off with any attempts by India to disrupt flow could constitute an act of aggression from both sides X (formerly Twitter). X (formerly Twitter) +10 (X formerly Twitter) +10 for their use of course!). For reference: +10
Wikipedia Additionally, the World Bank which helped facilitate the initial treaty has noted that India’s decision is contrary to international water-sharing agreements and raises further legal questions as to its legal standing and implications. These developments hasten questions over India’s unilateral suspension. In response, both Minute Mirror and The Diplomat reported India as seeking unilateral suspension under their water sharing agreements (both are available below).
Analysts speculate that India’s actions could set off a chain reaction of similar agreements among other nations, prompting others to review their commitments to similar treaties and possibly alter them unilaterally. This highlights the delicate balance of transboundary water agreements as well as any potentially consequential decisions in this domain.
As the region struggles with the repercussions of suspending their treaty, the international community closely observes developments. This situation highlights the necessity of diplomatic engagement and compliance with existing agreements to maintain regional stability and cooperation.