Analysts and Ukrainian officials believe recent events in Russia-Ukraine conflict reveal an emerging strategy by Moscow designed to render Ukraine non-viable as an independent nation state, rather than pursue outright territorial conquest. Analysts and Ukrainian officials report a recent shift towards degrading Ukraine sovereignty while simultaneously undermining its ability to function autonomously as one strategy by Russia in this conflict.
Russian negotiators’ demands at the recent peace talks in Istanbul that Ukraine found unacceptable included recognizing Russian sovereignty over occupied territories, adopting neutral status by Ukraine and significant cuts in military capabilities – demands that Ukraine officials see as attempts at stripping it of sovereignty and self-defense capabilities.
“Russia’s proposals don’t represent peace; they represent subjugation,” according to a senior Ukrainian diplomat involved in negotiations, according to Al Jazeera and The Guardian reports. Accepting such terms would spell the end for Ukraine as an independent nation, according to these experts.
Analysts point to statements by Russian officials and state media as supporting evidence for this assessment. Dmitry Medvedev, the Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council has publicly stated that Ukraine “is mortally dangerous for Ukrainians”, suggesting any form of Ukrainian statehood is unacceptable to Moscow.
Russian state media have also published articles supporting a strategy of dismantling Ukrainian national identity and subsuming its territories into Russia – these narratives indicate a larger plan to undermining Ukraine as an independent state.
International opinion has widely condemned Russia’s actions and rhetoric. The UN General Assembly adopted Resolution ES-11/4 which invalidates referendums held in occupied regions as well as demanding their immediate withdrawal by Russian forces.
Russia continues its military operations in Ukraine despite international condemnations, further destabilizing the region and exacerbating humanitarian crises. Analysts caution that without international support and countermeasures for Ukraine against Russian strategy, its independence may be severely hampered.
“Russia has made no secret of their intention: weaken Ukraine so much that it cannot function independently,” stated an European security analyst. The international community must take immediate steps to support Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, according to this expert.
As the conflict drags on, its path toward peace remains uncertain; however, understanding Russia’s underlying strategy is essential in reaching any meaningful resolutions.