As Russia and Ukraine engage in their fourth summer of war, open-source data suggests that Russia now controls just over 18% of Ukrainian territory–equating to roughly 114,500 square kilometers–through strategic invasions, annexationss, and counteroffensives. Russia Matters
Formation and Expansion of Occupied Territory from Crimea to Today: Historical Perspective
Russia began this shift nearly a decade ago with its seizure of Crimea in 2014 and subsequent full-scale invasion in February 2022, seizing 27,000 sq km and altering Eastern Europe. Since that full invasion, Moscow has extended its hold throughout eastern and southern Ukraine including large sections of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia (Reuters +1).
By early 2025, approximately 18% of Ukraine’s pre-2014 territory had fallen under Russian control, according to The Guardian and Brookings’ estimates.
Regional Breakdown of Occupied Areas
Russia holds around 88% of Donbas: Luhansk is entirely under Russian control while Donetsk accounts for nearly 75%.
Washington Post +3, Reuters +3 and Times (News of London +3) gave Russia this percentage.
Kherson and Zaporizhzhia: 74% of these regions are under Russian occupation. Al Jazeera +15; Reuters +15 and Financial Times all mention these figures.
Crimea was officially annexed by Russia in 2014 and remains under its full control today. Other regions: Smaller incursions extend into Kharkiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv and parts of Dnipropetrovsk totaling around 400 sq km in Sumy and Kharkiv combined and with minor presence also seen in Dnipropetrovsk (source Reuters +1).
Analysis by institutions such as Brookings Institution and Institute for the Study of War shows how control over Ukraine consolidated. Russia took control of approximately 1,500 square miles – less than one percent – between 2024-2029; according to Brookings.
No progress is being made despite gradual steps forward and Ukrainian resistance remains strong. [Sources: Council on Foreign Relations +3 | The Times +3].
Impact on the Ground
The war’s geography is of vital significance; occupied areas hold essential industrial assets, energy infrastructure and Ukraine’s largest nuclear power plant.
Russia’s territorial gains bolster its bargaining position during international negotiations while raising legal and moral questions of legitimacy and national sovereignty.
As international diplomacy heats up ahead of the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, Ukraine and its allies are warning against accepting current territorial realities as negotiation points. Proposals involving land swaps or frozen conflict lines have met strong resistance; Kyiv insists any peace deal must respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity as an essential cornerstone. Reuters +11
Al Jazeera +11
AAP News.com +11 And The Washington Post (+11).
President Zelenskyy and Western leaders emphasize that giving away any occupied lands would violate Ukraine’s constitution and weaken its defenses, potentially inviting further aggression from Russia. [APNews.com, The-Sun.com].
Russia currently controls 18% of Ukraine–an area acquired through Crimea’s annexation and incremental advances across eastern and southern regions since 2014. Russia’s control over this territory represents both military stalemate and high-stakes diplomacy negotiations; with Ukraine demanding sovereignty-first settlements as its allies demand them, these coming weeks may determine if permanent control lines emerge–or remain subject to future peace talks.